Availability and logistics move into focus
Fertiliser prices have remained relatively steady in recent weeks, but attention is increasingly turning to availability, replacement costs, and delivery timing.
What’s shaping the market?
European fertiliser production remains exposed to high energy costs. On 9th October, the Dutch TTF gas benchmark reached €88.10/MWh - its highest level since December 2022.
Geopolitical tensions and concerns about liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies are adding uncertainty ahead of winter. In mid-October, European gas storage was around 74% full, leaving the market vulnerable to further supply disruption or increased demand.
Natural gas is a key feedstock for nitrogen fertiliser production, particularly ammonia and urea. If high gas prices persist, they can squeeze European producers' margins and, if production is reduced, tighten regional supply. The impact on output and fertiliser prices will depend on each producer’s costs and operating decisions, as well as the availability of imports.
Logistics and haulage
Low water levels on the River Rhine have disrupted inland shipping, restricting vessel loads and increasing the risk of delays. The Rhine is an important European route for chemicals and industrial products, although the direct impact on fertiliser supplies depends on where the product comes from and how it is transported.
Road haulage is also affecting delivered prices. Higher diesel costs and less efficient delivery schedules are adding pressure.
Make sure you consider the full delivered cost, not just the price per tonne. Careful planning can help you avoid part-load charges or paying for multiple deliveries. If you only need a small amount of one product, could you combine it with a larger order? Alternatively, could you order some of the product you’ll need later in the season now, to make up a full load?
Current as at 21.10.26
Global urea continues to influence the nitrogen market, with competitively priced urea putting pressure on ammonium nitrate (AN).
Based on our latest prices, AN is approximately £1.37/kg N, compared with £1.02/kg N for urea. Urea is therefore the lower-cost option on a nutrient basis, but remember to factor in application conditions, handling, and nitrogen-use efficiency.
The global urea market remains sensitive to purchasing activity in India. Recent tender offers were below August levels, putting downward pressure on prices, although the market has since shown signs of recovery. Traders will be watching for further demand and changes in replacement costs.
If replacement costs rise, UK urea prices could move towards £1.08/kg N – around 6% higher. This is a possible scenario, not a confirmed forecast.
The Argus Fertiliser Conference took place this week, and we’d expect prices to subsequently climb as it drives demand, but that remains to be seen.
With demand still developing, the market remains finely balanced. A sustained rise in urea prices could influence AN values as producers look to remain competitive. However, further weakness in global urea prices could limit any increases.
The outlook for urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), like other nitrogen-based products, remains firm throughout Q4 2026 and into Q1 2027.
The liquid market opened at what now looks to have been a high, before prices corrected. More recently, prices have edged back towards those earlier levels and appear to be holding.
Spring UAN terms are available now, giving you the opportunity to manage risk and commit to product for delivery in Q1 and Q2. AF suppliers are offering options that include payment after delivery and application.
We can also procure a full range of NP and NPK products for cereal, forage, and root crops, whether you’re looking to place or broadcast-apply in the spring.
It’s worth planning for spring delivery pressures, as concentrated demand can limit available delivery slots. Also keep potential UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs in mind. HMRC has released indicative CBAM calculation models, but these are only indicative, with the first confirmed rates due to be published before the end of the year and updated on a quarterly basis thereafter.
If you haven’t ordered your spring requirements, my advice to you is to review what you still need now. That doesn’t mean you have to buy everything immediately, but you should understand what remains to be ordered and the price and availability risks of waiting.
A phased purchasing strategy could help you manage risk for spring 2027 - for example, ordering some product now and reviewing the balance in the new year. If cash flow or storage capacity has previously shaped your purchasing decisions, your AF Fertiliser Team can work with suppliers to explore payment terms and delivery windows that suit your business.
This could be a good opportunity to review your overall fertiliser system, as having more options available can give you greater flexibility.
For some businesses, using both liquid and solid fertiliser makes it easier to adapt applications to weather conditions, equipment availability, crop requirements and the economics of each product.
If you’d like to discuss the benefits of a hybrid system, or find out more about setting up for liquid or solid fertiliser next season, get in touch with your AF Fertiliser Team.
The market remains unusually complex. High energy costs, geopolitical instability, freight and insurance pressures, transport disruption, and uncertainty surrounding CBAM are all contributing to the picture.
No single factor is likely to determine prices. Easing geopolitical tensions or improved supply could bring some relief, but prices could still rise if production costs increase, availability tightens or demand strengthens.
Our advice is to understand your actual nutrient requirements, buy strategically and manage risk. Speak regularly with your AF Fertiliser Team, check which requirements you’ve already covered, and consider different purchasing scenarios rather than relying on a single price forecast.
In this market, preparation and flexibility matter. Availability and logistics can be just as important as price, and your AF Fertiliser Team is here to help.
Market updates as they happen, early access to new prices and special offers, as well as the chance to engage with fellow AF Members to pool orders, share knowledge, hear about ways they’re making fertiliser work harder for them, and buy better together.
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