The recent IFA Conference in Monaco brought together key players from the global fertiliser supply chain. This year the mood was cautious, shaped by significant geopolitical and economic factors.
Key market influences
Tariffs & trade: New US and EU tariffs, especially a €45/t EU tariff on Russian product, are reshaping trade flows.
Conflict zones: War in Ukraine, Middle East instability, and energy constraints in North Africa continue to disrupt supply chains.
China's output: Urea exports halved to 2M Mt - affecting global availability.
Currency swings: Sterling’s volatility is directly influencing import costs, notably adding c.£25/t to urea since November.
Domestic pressure: UK farmers face tight cash flow amid weak grain prices, reducing their purchasing power.
Fertiliser market outlook
MOP: Prices may rise by €15/t.
Phosphate & DAP: Supplies tight, prices remain firm.
Sulphur: Holding steady; remember UK-produced Polysulphate.
Nitrates: Little sign of UK price drops; Yara's initial pricing shows strength.
Granular urea: Currently good value vs. AN. Possible price rise ahead, but some expect a dip in July/Aug. Volatile and difficult to call.
Gas supply disruption: 20% of Egypt’s gas redirected from fertiliser use, reducing production capacity.
Enhanced urea is £375/t (73p/kg). AN will need to be £281/t. I do not believe this will happen – rumours are £320-£360/t. Indicating, financially at least, urea to be the much better option.
Currency trends
GBP/USD: Strengthening trend (1.22 in Jan to 1.345 in May)
GBP/EUR: Impacted by Trump’s April tariff announcements (drop from 1.19 to 1.15)
Source: www.xe.com
What does it all mean?
Overall sentiment is bullish, but uncertainty reigns. Pricing is highly volatile, and with affordability a serious issue in the UK, many are recommending a risk-managed purchasing strategy: spreading buys across the season to balance exposure.
With so much volatility, we can offer you a phased purchasing option: you commit to buy 33% now, 33% summer/autumn & 33% late 2025.
We’ll keep you updated on movements within the market, optimum times to buy and deals on pricing and payment terms.
In the meantime, get in touch if you have any questions. We’re here to help.
Mark Southwell, Fertiliser Procurement Manager
This market insight is our analysis of market sentiment at a point in time not advice to buy.
Although we’re hearing from some Members that they’re holding off making decisions about next year’s cropping, others are keen to get seed ordered.
Crop Inputs Specialist Hannah Carthy shares top trends she’s seen in winter 24/25 and highlights key characteristics of new varieties.
Last year’s favourites
Of 6,300 tonnes of winter cereal seed ordered by AF Members last year, most popular winter wheat varieties included Dawsum, Extase, Champion, Skyfall, Bamford and Crusoe. Palladium, Insitor, Graham, and Typhoon were also in demand.
You can order all these varieties through your AF Seed team for autumn ‘25.
New contenders
We’re expecting new winter wheat varieties this year. I anticipate seed availability for these will be limited. Key new varieties are:
KWS Vibe:
Offers significant improvement in disease resistance over older Group 1 varieties.
Impressive protein content of 13.2%, surpassing previously unrivalled Crusoe.
KWS Arnie:
Combines excellent grain quality, strong disease resistance, robust standing power and early maturity.
Similar to Extase but delivers nearly 4% higher yields as both first & second wheat.
KWS Solitaire:
Alongside Bamford, ranks among highest-yielding varieties on the 2025 Recommended List.
Performed well in untreated trials, showing solid all-round disease resistance and Orange Wheat Blossom Midge resistance.
RGT Hexton:
Shows strong agronomic data across the UK but particularly well suited to northern regions.
Has delivered excellent performance as both a first and second wheat.
KWS Scope:
Tops the 2025 Recommended List as highest-yielding variety.
Midge resistance, strong standing power, good specific weight, and reliable disease resistance, Scope is a dependable choice for maximising yield.
What about winter barley?
There will be plenty of most feed, malting and hybrid barley variety seed available. However, limited seed stock is expected of malting barley Craft and hybrid barley Inys. You will be pleased to hear your AF Seed team has already secured stock of Inys.
Our AF advice to you
From my conversations with our AF suppliers the message is clear: to get the varieties you want you need to plan, especially for new varieties or those we’re predicting will have limited availability.
Tell us what you need for autumn ‘25 so we can sort it for you.
Hannah Carthy, Crop Inputs Specialist
Whether you do your own agronomy or are simply interested in learning more, this half day is for you. Join Head of Agriculture John Barrett and Crop Protection Procurement Manager Alfie Jackson at the Bayer research farm, Herts for insights into current and future chemistry.
