The next three months are likely to be dominated by uncertainty rather than a clear, predictable price trend. The market has demonstrated how quickly prices can rise on supply fears and fall on announcements of additional stocks, as illustrated in our graph below.
The rise and fall of crude oil prices between February and October '26
For AF Members, the practical approach is to manage supply risk first, monitor market value closely and use forward fixing where it offers worthwhile budget protection. The objective is not necessarily to buy at the lowest possible price, but to secure the fuel you need at a price and risk level you can manage.
Significant price volatility: oil and fuel prices were heavily influenced by developments in the Middle East, with prices reacting sharply to geopolitical news and changes in perceived supply risk.
Hormuz remained a major concern: the risk of disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased the potential for higher crude oil and refined fuel prices, alongside additional shipping and insurance costs.
Prices moved in both directions: political developments, diplomatic efforts and announcements about potential stock releases triggered sharp movements. Short-term falls did not necessarily mean the underlying supply risks had disappeared.
Diesel became particularly sensitive to supply news: concerns about European diesel availability and the timing of stock releases added pressure to an already volatile market.
Supply remained a separate consideration: extended delivery lead times highlighted the importance of forward planning, even when physical fuel was still available.
Agricultural customers faced greater budgeting uncertainty: Rapid price changes made it harder for farmers to decide when to buy, how much to store and whether to fix prices in advance.
The key lesson: purchasing decisions became increasingly difficult because the market was reacting to geopolitical events rather than following a predictable seasonal trend.
Continued high volatility: the Middle East remains a major uncertainty. Further attacks on shipping or disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could push crude oil and fuel prices higher.
Diesel supply is a key concern: the UK relies heavily on imported diesel, leaving it exposed to international competition for cargoes. Disruption to exports, reduced Middle Eastern flows and refinery maintenance could keep the market tight.
Stock releases could bring prices down: coordinated releases of oil and fuel stocks could ease supply pressure and reduce wholesale prices if significant volumes reach the market quickly. However, stock releases are a temporary buffer rather than a permanent solution.
Winter demand will add pressure: colder weather increases demand for heating oil, while winter diesel requirements and seasonal changes in refinery operations could tighten supplies further.
Supply disruption does not automatically mean UK shortages: fuel may remain available, but replacement cargoes could become more expensive or take longer to arrive. The immediate risk may be higher prices and longer lead times rather than fuel becoming unavailable.
Prices could fall sharply if tensions ease: improved shipping through Hormuz, the return of disrupted exports or successful stock releases could trigger a significant correction. Renewed disruption could quickly reverse those falls.
The key lesson: prioritise supply planning. With winter approaching, allow sufficient delivery lead time, monitor tank levels, and avoid leaving ordering until your fuel stocks are critically low.
Do not assume prices have peaked: there is potential for further increases, but the market could also fall quickly if supply improves.
Avoid trying to find the market bottom: purchasing decisions should consider both price and the cost of being caught short.
Encourage forward planning: review your expected fuel requirements for the remainder of autumn and winter, particularly where storage capacity is limited.
Consider forward fixing selectively: fixing an agreed proportion of your expected requirements can provide budget certainty while leaving some volume exposed to potential market falls. The right balance depends on the price offered and your appetite for risk.
Monitor physical supply as well as market prices: changes in crude oil prices do not always translate immediately into equivalent changes in delivered farm fuel prices. Refining margins, regional availability, haulage, and supplier premiums also matter.
Need help planning your fuel requirements? Contact your AF Fuel Team to discuss your needs, explore your options, and get support navigating the current market.